Why Most Failures Aren’t Failures: The Pyramid of Self-Selection

Many quit before truly starting. Learn how self-selection, not failure, shapes our journeys—and how to break through each hurdle to real success.

When I reflect on my own professional experiments—whether it’s launching a podcast, building a new product like ReplyWire, starting a think tank (Brave Genius—though, truthfully, we weren’t always brave or genius), or even just writing consistently—I see a pattern that’s getting more attention these days. We talk about “failing fast,” but it’s still hard to apply that mindset to our own situations. Most of us imagine failure as something dramatic, backed by data and post-mortems worthy of a business case study. In reality, though, there’s a quieter and more pervasive phenomenon at play: what I call the self-selection fallacy of failure.

Let me explain what I mean by that, and why it matters for anyone who’s ever felt like they “failed” before really beginning.

The Pyramid of Progress: Hurdles, Not Failures

Picture the journey to launching a successful podcast as a pyramid. At the base, there’s everyone who’s ever thought, “Maybe I should start a podcast.” The first hurdle is actually sitting down to record an episode. Most never get past this. The next hurdle is editing and posting that episode. Even fewer reach this stage. After that comes promoting your show, building an audience, monetizing, and so on. At each level, the number of participants thins out.

Here’s the key insight: most people who “fail” at podcasting—or any new venture—never actually failed at the core activity. They self-selected out at an earlier hurdle, usually because of discomfort, fear, or uncertainty—not because of any hard data or feedback about their potential.

Real-World Example: My Webcast Journey

When I first considered starting a webcast, I spent weeks creating a strategy, name, researching microphones, software, and formats. I told myself I was preparing, but in reality, I was procrastinating. The real hurdle was sitting down, hitting record, and listening to my own awkward voice. When I finally did, I realized the technical hurdles were minor compared to the psychological ones.

Many of my peers never got that far. They’d talk about their ideas at networking events, but months later, nothing had materialized. They’d say, “I guess it just wasn’t for me,” or, “I wouldn’t have been any good at it.” But they hadn’t failed at their idea —they’d simply never started.

The Self-Selection Fallacy: Why We Mislabel Our Experience

Harvard Business Review and MIT Sloan research both highlight how we often misinterpret our own exits as failures, when in reality, we’ve opted out due to internal barriers. This is the self-selection fallacy: confusing the act of stepping away (often before real feedback is possible) with actual failure.

It’s a subtle but important distinction. If you never post your first episode, you haven’t failed at building an audience—you’ve just never tested whether you could. The same applies to entrepreneurship, public speaking, or any ambitious project.

The Hidden Fears That Drive Self-Selection

Digging deeper into why people opt out early, I’ve found recurring themes of fear and discomfort. These aren’t just abstract concepts—they’re visceral, human reactions that shape outcomes more than we realize:

1. Fear of Failure (and Its Cousin, Perfectionism)

Anticipating embarrassment or criticism can freeze progress. Before releasing my first podcast episode, I agonized over every stumble in my delivery. Psychology Today identifies this as the top reason people stall on goals. It’s not failure itself we fear—it’s the anticipation of failure.

2. Fear of Rejection

Sharing creative work or pitching ideas feels deeply personal. I hesitated to promote my podcast on social media, worried friends would dismiss it. CNBC’s research shows this fear of rejection is a leading career barrier, often masquerading as “waiting for the right time.”

3. Fear of Public Scrutiny

The Mayo Clinic links social anxiety to avoidance behaviors. Even posting online can trigger this—I’ve watched colleagues abandon projects because they couldn’t tolerate the vulnerability of being seen trying.

4. Fear of Uncertainty

McLean Hospital’s studies reveal that anxiety often stems from intolerance of ambiguity. When I launched my podcast, I had no guarantees anyone would listen. That uncertainty was far scarier than any technical challenge.

5. Decidophobia (Fear of Making the Wrong Choice)

I’ve watched peers spend months researching equipment but never recording, paralyzed by the need for perfect decisions. This quest for certainty becomes its own trap.

Actionable Advice: Redefining Failure and Progress

So, what can we do about this? First, we need to redefine what counts as failure. If you haven’t put yourself in a position to get real feedback, you haven’t failed—you’ve just encountered a hurdle. Recognizing this can be liberating.

When I finally posted my first webcast episode, I braced myself for criticism or indifference. Instead, I got a handful of supportive messages and some constructive feedback. That was real data. It helped me improve, and more importantly, it kept me moving up the pyramid.

If you’re facing a similar journey, I encourage you to identify the next hurdle—not the summit. Focus on getting to the next level, whether that’s recording, posting, or promoting. Each stage is an opportunity to learn, not a verdict on your potential.

Here are four steps you could take to push through the self selection fallacy:

1. Name the Fear

When I felt stuck promoting my webcast, I wrote down my specific fears: “What if no one shares this episode? What if my cohost thinks I’m bad at this?” Simply articulating them reduced their power.

2. Treat Hurdles as Experiments

Instead of viewing each step as pass/fail, frame them as data-gathering missions. My first webcast episode wasn’t about being perfect—it was about answering: “Can I actually do this?”

3. Normalize Discomfort

A study in Harvard Business Review found that 72% of professionals feel “imposter syndrome” when trying new skills. When I shared my anxieties with peers, I discovered they’d felt the same—normalizing the experience made it easier to keep going.

4. Focus on the Next Hurdle, Not the Summit

Ask: “What’s the immediate next step?” For podcasting, that might mean recording a 10-minute test clip before worrying about editing software or monetization.

There’s a reason I do most of my webcasts live—it forces the conversation to go out into the world, and there’s nothing I can do to stop it. Whether I spend time on post-production or not, the recording is already accessible to my community. I’m not even giving myself the opportunity to seek perfection, and I’m trusting my ability to drive authentic and meaningful conversations in real time.

Breaking Through: Making Self-Selection Work for You

The reality is, self-selection isn’t always bad. It’s a natural part of any competitive process. But it becomes a fallacy when we interpret early exits as evidence of our inability, rather than a sign that we haven’t truly started.

I’ve learned to ask myself: “Have I really failed, or have I just not given myself the chance to succeed?” More often than not, it’s the latter.

If you have examples from your own journey—times you thought you failed, but really just hadn’t started—I’d love to hear them. Let’s reframe the conversation about failure, one hurdle at a time.